Cyclone Arnab Explained: Why IMD Expects a Very Severe Storm to Hit Andhra Pradesh on 28 October
Key Takeaways
- A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to become a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October 2026 and a very severe cyclonic storm by the morning of 28 October.
- It is forecast to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam with sustained winds of 115-125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph.
- The name Arnab, proposed by Bangladesh, applies once the system reaches cyclonic storm strength; it would be the first Bay of Bengal cyclone of 2026.
- Odisha is also in the warning zone: 225 rescue teams are mobilised, disaster personnel leave is cancelled, and extremely heavy rain is forecast for 27-29 October.
- Computer models differ slightly on the exact landfall point, so the IMD's official track and bulletins are the final word as the storm approaches.
What is happening right now
A weather system over the Bay of Bengal is strengthening day by day, and it is now the most closely watched forecast in India. On Sunday, 25 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that a depression over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal had intensified into a deep depression. At 11:30 am IST, it lay centred near latitude 15.1 degrees north and longitude 91.0 degrees east, about 870 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, 960 km east-south-east of Kakinada and 1,130 km east of Bapatla.
The IMD expects the system to keep strengthening on a fairly steady timetable. It is very likely to become a cyclonic storm over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal by the early morning of 26 October, a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal around the morning of 27 October, and a very severe cyclonic storm by the morning of 28 October. It is then very likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm by the forenoon of 28 October, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 115 to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph.
Until the system actually reaches cyclonic storm strength, it does not officially carry the name Arnab. The Indian Express reports that once it intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will officially be named Cyclone Arnab, a name proposed by Bangladesh. Reports in the Odia and national press note that the name means ocean or sea. It would be the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in 2026.
Why the forecast matters for Andhra Pradesh and Odisha
Although the forecast landfall is on the Andhra Pradesh coast, Odisha is also firmly in the warning zone, and that is why both states moved on 25 October. The IMD issued a cyclone alert, in the form of an Orange Message, for Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining south Odisha coasts. The Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre warned that even though landfall is expected in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, particularly its southern districts, should expect severe weather, extremely heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
In Odisha, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed the state's cyclone preparedness and directed officials to aim for zero casualties, drawing on lessons from previous cyclones. Deputy Chief Minister Kanak Vardhan Singh Deo chaired a preparedness review at Krushi Bhawan in Bhubaneswar, covering coordination between departments, emergency readiness and protection of lives, livelihoods and agricultural resources. The state government cancelled the leave of all disaster management personnel and mobilised 225 rescue teams on high alert across vulnerable districts, with 225 tower lights distributed to the teams so they can work after dark. President Droupadi Murmu's scheduled two-day visit to Odisha from 28 October was also postponed because of the possible storm.
In Andhra Pradesh, the State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) urged people to remain on high alert. Its managing director, Prakhar Jain, said in an official release that the depression over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal was expected to intensify further in the coming days and that people should remain extremely alert. Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha between 27 and 29 October, with districts including Vizianagaram, Manyam, Alluri, Kadapa, Annamayya, Chittoor and Tirupati named in state warnings. The Andaman Islands are also under heavy to very heavy rainfall warnings through 27 October.
How a depression becomes a very severe cyclonic storm
A tropical cyclone is, in simple terms, a giant rotating system of wind and rain that feeds on warm ocean water. The IMD tracks such systems through a ladder of stages. A low-pressure area concentrates into a depression, then a deep depression, then a cyclonic storm, then a severe cyclonic storm, and then a very severe cyclonic storm, with wind speeds rising at each step. Arnab is currently climbing that ladder, which is why the forecasts change in stages rather than jumping straight to a landfall warning.
The track matters as much as the strength. The IMD's current forecast takes the system first south-westwards, then curving west-north-westwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast. Computer weather models do not all agree on the exact landfall point: reports citing the GFS and ECMWF models put the crossing near the Kakinada-Visakhapatnam stretch, possibly approaching the coast from the south-east of Visakhapatnam on the morning of 28 October. That spread is normal three days out, and it is why officials stress the IMD's official track and bulletins over any single model run. The forecast will be refined as the storm gets closer to the coast and more observations come in.
The timing also fits a familiar seasonal pattern. The post-monsoon months of October and November are the peak season for cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, when warm sea surface temperatures and shifting wind patterns favour storm formation. The Indian Express notes that this storm's formation aligns with conditions typical of an El Nino year, in which abnormal warming in the equatorial Pacific tends to push northern hemisphere cyclones to form at lower latitudes and track towards the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts. That is background context for why this system is behaving as it is, not a prediction about any other storm.
What the impact could look like
The most immediate danger from a storm of this forecast strength is the combination of wind, rain and sea. Sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph, are strong enough to uproot trees, damage power and communication lines, and tear loose roofing and hoardings. That is why disaster teams, tower lights and cancelled leave matter: the response has to work in the dark and in high wind if the storm arrives as forecast.
The second danger is water. Extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between 27 and 29 October raises the risk of waterlogging and localised flooding in low-lying areas, and of disruption to road and rail transport. Farmers in the coastal districts face a particular worry, because a late-October storm can damage standing crops and horticulture just as much as it damages houses and infrastructure. For fishing communities, a cyclonic storm means rough seas and a halt to fishing activity until the system passes and the sea calms.
None of this means the forecast is fixed. A cyclone's intensity and landfall point can shift as it moves, and a storm that is forecast as very severe three days out can weaken, strengthen or shift its track. The practical point for people in the coastal districts is to follow the IMD's bulletins and the advisories of the state disaster management authorities, rather than relying on social media posts or old track maps that may already be out of date.
What happens next
The next two days are the ones to watch. If the system becomes a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October, it will formally take the name Arnab, and the IMD's track and intensity forecasts will start to narrow. By the morning of 27 October, when it is expected to be a severe cyclonic storm, the likely landfall stretch should be clearer, and the state governments' evacuation and relief plans for the most exposed coastal areas will be firmer.
For now, the picture is clear enough to act on and uncertain enough to keep updating: a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal, a forecast path towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast, a landfall window on the forenoon of 28 October with winds gusting to 140 kmph, and two coastal states already on alert. Anyone in the affected districts should check the latest IMD bulletin before travelling, keep phones charged, and treat official warnings as the final word. This article reflects the forecasts available on 25 October 2026; the IMD's later bulletins will supersede it if the track or intensity changes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
When is Cyclone Arnab expected to make landfall?
The system is currently a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal. The IMD expects it to become a cyclonic storm by the early morning of 26 October 2026, a severe cyclonic storm around the morning of 27 October, and a very severe cyclonic storm by the morning of 28 October, when it is forecast to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam.
Where does the name Arnab come from?
The name Arnab was proposed by Bangladesh and means ocean or sea. It will officially apply once the system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, which the IMD expects by the early morning of 26 October 2026. It would be the first cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in 2026.
Will Odisha be affected even though landfall is forecast in Andhra Pradesh?
The forecast landfall is on the Andhra Pradesh coast, but Odisha is also affected. The Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre has warned of severe weather, extremely heavy rainfall and gusty winds in southern Odisha, and the Odisha government has mobilised 225 rescue teams and cancelled the leave of disaster personnel. Heavy to extremely heavy rain is forecast for both states between 27 and 29 October.
How strong will the winds be, and what damage can they cause?
The IMD forecasts sustained winds of 115 to 125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph, at landfall. Winds of that strength can uproot trees, damage power lines and roofing, and combine with extremely heavy rain to cause waterlogging and localised flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
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